Introduction
In a move amplifying geopolitical tensions, India opened five gates of the Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir on May 11, 2025, releasing significant water flow toward Pakistan. This action follows India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in April 2025, a landmark 1960 agreement governing transboundary water-sharing. The decision, framed as a response to Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism, has sparked fears of flooding in downstream regions and intensified the decades-old India-Pakistan water dispute.
The Salal Dam: A Strategic Asset in the Indus Waters Dispute
The Salal Dam, located in Reasi district on the Chenab River, is a critical hydroelectric project for India. Built in 1987, it has long been a point of contention under the IWT, which grants Pakistan rights over the Chenab, Indus, and Jhelum rivers. Historically, India maintained minimal water storage at Salal to comply with treaty obligations. However, after suspending the IWT post the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack—which killed 26 tourists—India gained unilateral control over water flow.
The recent gate openings mark a tactical shift. While officials cited heavy rainfall and reservoir management as reasons, the timing aligns with India’s broader strategy to leverage water as a geopolitical tool. Last week, India had restricted water flow to Pakistan, causing the Chenab to dry up to a mere 2 feet in some areas—a stark contrast to its usual 25–30-foot depth.
Geopolitical Triggers: From Terrorism to Water Warfare
The Pahalgam attack, blamed on Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), triggered India’s military retaliation (Operation Sindoor) and the IWT suspension. By opening Salal’s gates, India signals its readiness to weaponize water, a resource vital to Pakistan’s agriculture and economy. Pakistan’s Punjab province, which relies on the Chenab for 65% of its irrigation, faces immediate risks of flooding and long-term water scarcity.
Pakistan condemned the move, calling it an “act of war” and threatening international legal action. However, India asserts its right to manage domestic infrastructure, emphasizing that the IWT suspension allows “free will” in water governance.
Implications for Pakistan: Floods, Agriculture, and Diplomacy
- Flood Risks: The sudden release of water has raised alarms in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and Punjab. In May 2023, similar gate openings caused flash floods, displacing thousands. With monsoon season approaching, Pakistan’s disaster management agencies are on high alert.
- Agricultural Crisis: Over 80% of Pakistan’s farmland depends on Indus basin rivers. Reduced water flow during sowing seasons could devastate crops like wheat and rice, exacerbating food insecurity.
- Diplomatic Fallout: The action complicates already fragile bilateral relations. Despite a May 10 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., violations persist, and water disputes remain unresolved.
International Reactions and Legal Battles
The U.S., China, and Saudi Arabia have urged restraint, while Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia welcomed the ceasefire but stressed dialogue. Meanwhile, Pakistan plans to challenge India’s IWT suspension at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. Legal experts argue that while India can modify water flow for technical reasons, prolonged manipulation may violate international norms.
Historical Context: Water as a Weapon
Water has long been a flashpoint in India-Pakistan relations. In 2019, India threatened to divert eastern rivers after the Pulwama attack, and in 2023, it halted Indus water data sharing. The Salal Dam’s latest maneuver mirrors these tactics, underscoring India’s capacity to inflict economic pain without direct military confrontation.
The Road Ahead: Escalation or Resolution?
- Short-Term Measures: Pakistan may seek third-party mediation or accelerate its own dam projects, like the Diamer-Bhasha Dam, to reduce dependency on Indian-controlled rivers.
- Long-Term Solutions: Reviving the IWT or negotiating a new framework is critical. Experts like Elizabeth Threlkeld of the Stimson Centre warn that without political resolution, water disputes will fuel recurring crises.
Conclusion
India’s decision to open Salal Dam’s gates is a calculated escalation in its water diplomacy, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions. While framed as a technical necessity, the move underscores the vulnerability of transboundary water-sharing in conflict zones. For Pakistan, the immediate threat of floods and long-term agricultural disruption loom large, while India consolidates its strategic leverage. As both nations navigate this volatile landscape, the need for dialogue—and the risks of miscalculation—have never been greater.